We have the feeling that the market arrives, price-wise, in a period of uncertainty.
OK. We know meanwhile what we can and cannot expect from the Chilean market.
Limited quantities (specially flames) no jumbos and high prices.
We also know that the summermonths are coming up and that during that period the demand, in general and most likely, is diminishing.
What we do not know is how the crop/market in California and Turkey, eventually, will develop.
From Turkey we get the news that prices did increase during the last two weeks, that supplies from the farmers to the packers are tight and that the early frost could still play a role in the end. Of course one should not expect that exporting countries resp. exporters will be very positive about the future developments for the simple reason that exporters like a sellers’ market whereas purchasers always prefer a buyers’ market.
Although it is rather early but the first news from California is that the development of the crop seems to go well.
All in all, the final crop result of both forementioned countries is THE crucial factor to see in September/October a market which shows about the same price-levels as in the beginning of this year just because the final numbers are lower than last season or, on the other hand, a sharp decrease in prices because of the abundancy of both crops.
With the permanent strong demand for almonds (worldwide and specially from China) together with the ongoing high price-levels for almonds, we do not expect any serious enlargement of the raisin-area in California, so that, provided the weather keeps positive, a normal crop lies more in the expectation.
Therefore, in case Turkey has an excellent crop it is possible that prices will come under pressure but the lower levels, as we have seen in the past 5/6 years, will not come in sight anymore.
In that respect we can only notice that neither Chile nor S-Africa can play a decisive role to bring price up or down. The quantities, to play a major role, are simply too small and furthermore, both countries, have, apart from other exporting countries, their own price levels for their specialities.
Summarizing we expect (later in the year for new crop shipments Sept/Dec) prices for Thompsons at the downside at USD 2400.- and on the upside at USD 2600.-.
Meanwhile we wish you all a great summer-season and a good rest and will see you back in September unless something spectacular will happen.
We will keep a sharp eye on the market.