Although every day farmers still bring in a good portion of raisins, one can say that finally this years’ crop in South Africa comes to an end.
Despite the fact that we have no official figures available, as yet, we come to the conclusion that the crop, as a whole, was much bigger than last year, which was then already quite a good crop, to say the least.
Some weeks ago, everybody was unsure how this year’s bumpercrop could be swallowed by the market, surely with the knowledge that there was a rather big carry-over, (to say the least).
Today, with the uncertainty about the new raisin-crop in Turkey (at least there are a lot of question-marks about possible frost-damage) and the ongoing high levels for Californian Thompsons, the demand for raisins, despite the firm dollar, is back.
Funny enough,the pattern is always the same and does not only apply for raisins or other soft commodities but for all commodities : buyers are waiting for the lowest prices and once something happens in the market, the change is manifest.
Sellers are withdrawing and buyers knock on doors.
From our point of view this chance is clearly palpable for Thompsons but not for goldens, anylonger.
On goldens the interest is fading some what.
Not that the interest is totally gone but buyers realize that those goods which are still coming available is not the best choice any longer, so to say and to make it interesting for the packers to produce a top-quality, the current price-levels are simply too low.
As said, a totally different story we see with Thompsons or Thompson-like produce.
This market is so much bigger than the golden market that once the feeling takes shape that something ackward could happen some day (shortages in stead of bumper-crops) that the downward trend changes quickly in the opposite.
We will enter now into a period whereby it is up to the buyers to decide whether the better scenario should be to fill up the books until the end of the year or wait until September/October in order to see what the market will do once we got there.