Time is coming closer to find out exactly what kind of raisin-market we will see in autumn when purchasers will enter the market for the traditional season-buying.
According to the news we had over the past months/weeks, both Turkey and California seem to get a good crop whereby, most probably, Turkey will have the bigger one.
According to the latest information:328.000 tons.
What will that mean price-wise?
We feel it is too early to give a straight direction to the price-development. With the two giants having a good crop it is reasonable to expect lower prices but having said that, we should not forget that prices have been sinking strongly already from roughly USD 2500 per ton to USD 1750.-(even lower) in the past 3/4 months for Thompsons and Thompson-like raisins.
Looking at it from that point of view, farmers and packers shall seize every opportunity to try and get prices in the lift again.
That is the reason why we say that we should wait a little bit longer to see prices establishing in a certain balance.
Learning from the past, we can emphasize that prices have been getting too high too fast. Henceforth a sharp downward correction was necessary.
The ongoing high price-levels over the last 4/5 years, have been very stimulating to bring more players/suppliers to the market-place like India, Iran, China, Afghanistan.
As a result, the balance between supply and demand was heavily disturbed and prices came back/down to more or less normal/old levels.
Summarizing we can say that the prospects are favorable as far as the supply is concerned but the old saying is wait until the merchandise is under the roof (better said is: totally wrapped up). Experience tells us that it is better to hold our horses until we have more exact figures in our hands.
South Africa: farmers have been starting to make preparations for the new crop. Time will learn (specially in September/October) what we may or may not expect from the new crop. Important is that the formementioned two months will pass without too much frost or bad weather.
Current crop; the demand for current crop is not overwhelming to say the least. On the supply side (and we can only talk for ourselves) there is neither much to report resp. to offer.
No goldens left, we would say. only a single container of Thompsons mediums, O.R.’s or Flame!.
More at the end of August.
We wish you nice holidays.