The moment of the expected, important news about the raisin-crops from Turkey and California is coming closer…………
First we have to see whether the negative crop-news, from Turkey, as it came to us during March and April, has indeed led to the quite negative figures as they were indicated then.
Secondly we have to wait and see how Turkish farmers, packers, Taris and not to forget the market, as a whole, are going to react on these figures, in case they might not be very promising.
Shortly after the news from Turkey, (read second half of August), we hopefully get a good impression how, despite the general drought, the raisin-grapes in California came through the summer-period.
In this respect we should not forget the fact that, today, we talk about a bearing acreage of abt 190.000 against 230.000 acres in 2005, a difference of more than 17 percent, which went mostly to the benefit of the nut-industry. Despite the above, both forementioned suppliers, because of the volumes, are making the difference. The other origins, with all respect and all together good for the remaining quantity of roughly about 500.000 tons have to follow.
Anyhow,the market has, in fact, come to an ongoing standstill which is normal during the summer-months, whereby there are hardly any offers around but will surely revive again during the autumn-months to come.
Buyers who rather go for the qualities of South Africa and Chile must have patience until next year February/Mach and April deliveries.
In case the first real growing-months (September and October) will pass off quietly without extreme weather-situations, sellers/packers might enter the market in order to have some contracts in their books before the season really starts
What we can predict already now is that price-levels, in general, will start higher than what we have seen in the last 3/4 months.
LATEST NEWS: whilst writing this article, the official announcement came already from Turkey saying that
the estimate for the new crop raisins will be…… 196.000 tons, which should be seen as a disappointing figure.