On the Northern Hemisphere, August is the month of harvesting.
Depending on the weather-circumstances during the season, the harvesting can start as early as the 1st of August but can also been spread out until end of August resp. the first days of September.
In other words, from now on and in the coming weeks it will get clear, both in Turkey as well as in California, what we may expect from these supplying countries.
As it looks today both countries can start harvesting early.
Anyhow we should not speculate too much on the outcome, as yet.
Turkey had adverse weather at the start of the season and California was struck by very high temperatures in June and partly also in the beginning of July.
Whether these factors will really have severe negative effects on quantities and qualities, only time will learn.
(Latest information learns us that the crop from Turkey is indeed 30 percent less than the year before. Total availability is estimated at 240.000 tons.)
Under normal circumstances Iran should have a crop of abt 140/150.000 tons but the latest news from that side shows that they also reckon with a crop which is abt 20 percent smaller.
Again, under normal circumstances these three countries should have enough tonnage available to keep supply and demand basically in balance whereby prices should not move too much, either way. The big question-mark is: will this be the fact also this year??
We feel the answer should come from California and that answer shall not be available until end of August.
We can only stress what we have said in our earlier report: there are no buffer raisin-stocks available in the consuming countries, which means that once crop figures should disappoint, price-wise reactions cannot be a surprise, at least for the months of September, October and early November.
We shall see.