Getting into the month of september, the need is definitely there to start focussing again on the new crop South African raisins. This is a process which should be followed from the very beginning and holds many question-marks. Is the forming/developing of the buds in time? Follows the flowering properly, whilst the young grapes do get enough water at the right time? Do we not get too cold weather at the moment, whilst it is no longer welcomed? These sort of questions will be in anybody’s mind until FINALLY the crop is in the barn.
One thing is clear, from now on, until early January, there will be a lot of uncertainty and not to forget… a lot of gossip. It is a fact already that California and Turkey, the two biggest suppliers of raisins, will have a good crop as far as the quantities are concerned. Certainly Turkey is getting into the region of 300.000 tons again, as it seems today, whereas last season they only got about 170.000 tons. In California we expect more or less the same tonnage. (300.000 tons)
With Usd 1400.- roughly for the 3 main types, we can imagine that buyers are not yet urging to fill up their books. That does not mean that California will be on the same train as far as prices are concerned, as Turkey. On the other hand we should not forget that last season California lost quite some export-turnover because of stiff price-levels. Its seems they bring 160.000 tons as carry-over into the new crop.
Let us suppose that also all other supplying countries have a fair crop. Does that mean that there is enough or even too much of supply? If that should be the case we, normally, can expect low(er) prices over the whole?
Was it as easy as that!!
Not only the quantity is important, even more important is the quality. A good and simple saying is: everything has got its value!!
It is far too early for definite conclusions, specially where it concerns South African raisins and then, even more specific, the goldens.
Is the farmer prepared to make goldens? Is the farmer prepared to make golden jumbos? and not just mediums??
The answer will be: if they do not feel that they can make a fair premium they will sooner or later abolish the goldens.
The question therefore is:: can they make a good premium? The answer is yes but,….. but only for a superior quality.
There are three important factors/groups in these mediations.
First of all. the BUYERS who are prepared to pay a premium for South African golden raisins but the quality should be superior.
Secondly can the packer close contracts? Yes, of course but the price is not the most important factor in this respect. He must be sure to receive the proper raw material, in order to make a fair price.The third and foremost is the farmer. He is only prepared to make nice goldens (medium or Jumbos) as long he is sure about the same fair price.
We will see what happens. Let’s be frank: it is quite early in the season.
As fas as current crop 2016 concerns we have the following to offer subject unsold;
in store Rotterdam
Golden Jumbo choice
838 cartons x 10 kilos
Usd 4700 per mton
Thompsons Bold standard
160 cartons x 12,5 kilos
Usd 2000 per mton
Golden Bold choice
33 cartons x 10 kilos
Usd 3500 per mton
Golden medium choice
30 cartons x 10 kilos
Usd 3100 per mton
Orange River medium choice
111 cartons x 12,5 kilos
Usd 2450 per mton
Thompsons Jumbo choice
461 cartons x 12,5 kilos
Usd 2000 per mton
basis FOT customs cleared
besides that we have following mixed containers afloat to Rotterdam
350 cartons x 13,6 kilos Flame Jumbo a Usd 2200 per mton
545 cartons x 12,5 kilos Thompsons dark Regal choice medium a Usd 2000 per mton
612 cartons x 13,6 kilos Flame medium choice a Usd 2150 per mton
670 cartons x 13,6 kilos Thompsons smalls choice a Usd 2050 per mton
69 cartons x 12,5 kilos Flame smalls choice a Usd 2100 per mton
360 cartons x 13,6 kilos Thompsons medium choice a Usd 2000 per mton
and following for prompt shipment from South Africa
1400 x 13,6 kilos Thompsons medium choice a Usd 1950 per mton
3200 x 12,5 kilos Thompsons medium standard a Usd 1850 per mton
733 x 12,5 kilos WP medium choice a Usd 1850 per mton
736 x 12,5 kilos WP smalls choice a Usd 1850 per mton
basis CFR EMP