The point that farmers in South Africa are starting to cut and dry the first loads of grapes is getting close.
As it looks today, South African farmers are foreseeing a crop of 35 to 40.000 tons of raisins, which is, taking the bad frosty start in consideration, quite a fairly sized crop.
Because a lot could still happen in the coming 3 to 4 weeks, quality- as well as quantity-wise, we shall have to wait until after Christmas before it will be clear at what sort of level South African packers shall come out with prices for Goldens, Thompsons, O.R.s, W.P.s and Flames.
It goes without saying that South African prices, specially for the Thompson mediums, should remain, more or less, in line with those of California and Chile, although the latter will not be availalble before the end of March, we presume..
In this respect and at this stage, it does not make sence to compare prices with those of a.o. Turkey’s nr. 9 because levels of USD 2700.- cannot be seen as attractive for buyers in general.
We do understand that due to this years’ important smaller Turkish crop and the number of problems such shortfall has given to the market (think of short-selling) prices have moved up, in an extraordinary way, very quickly,
Such behaviour in commodities is normal and understandable but will, in most times, also calm down in a short period of time. ( Prices have been up to USD 3000.–per ton fob)
Summarizing one can say that prices for Thompsons, in general, shall, in our opinion, fluctuate between USD 2600,- on the down-side and USD 2700.- on the upside.
The pricing for golden mediums, bolds and jumbos is quite a different item and are hardly to predict/indicate at this very moment.
We shall come back on that early in the new year.
In the meantime we wish all our readers a Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year.
P.S. For those of you who are still in need of some raisins we have the following fresh material arriving in Rotterdam: Thompson Smaal Choice, Thompson Jumbo choice and Golden medium Industrial.