Since everybody is now obviously aware of the facts about this years’ upcoming smaller Turkey’s raisin-crop and being no need anylonger to base ourselves on question-marks/suggestions, crystalballs and the lot, we can clearly state that the consequence shall be that the raisin-market, in general, will go firmer for the rest of the year.

The rise in price shall partly be the result of “position-trading” by dealers, partly resulting in withdrawal of growers and producers, respectively positioning themselves at a higher price-level and shall, undoubtedly, rise further by increased buying-activities of the industry in order to cover for the last 4 months, respectively the beginning of next year.

Since it is not realistic to think that the Californian crop can fill the gap of the smaller crop in Turkey and with the knowledge that both origins together are normally supplying almost three quarter of the raisin-demand world-wide, one need not be clever to foresee a tight market, with probably more demand than supply and henceforth higher prices despite the “suggested” carry-over in Turkey.

To make things more clear and possibly worse: it is no secret to tell that the crop in California will even be smaller than last season and henceforth no reason from that side of the pond to lower the price-levels.
Is the negative factor in Tukey frost, in California the negative factor is drought. Putting things together it was already an omen that, despite the good crop in Turkey, last year. California, for the last 10 months, did hardly offering anything lower than USD 2400.- for Thompson mediums.

Those forementioned two facts will be reason that there is a fair chance that we go back direction the old levels of 2013/2014 season, which were (at the very top) about USD 600.- per ton higher (both for Thompsons and Goldens) than during the season 2014 until April 2015.

OK. For both crops we haven’t seen the final results as yet but the expectations/indications, as they have been brought to the market, are not glorious, to put it mildly.

Carry-overs from Chile and South Africa, although available, cannot bridge the gap because both are not big enough to make the difference.
Maybe Iran, India and Argentina can come up with qualities and quantities which can calm down the upcoming excitement, although is the unlikely.

As far as south African raisins, we are halfway our season and the majority of the crop have found its way to the clients worldwide and have been contracted for the 2nd part of this year

Only limited quantities are left unsold, like Goldens Standard and Industrials, for which we expect to be sold-out soon…