Yes, having been in the fields and checking percentages with own eyes, we can fully confirm now what we have stated in our last bulletin… the crop in South Africa, has seen better days, to put it very friendly.
Looking at the various figures, one comes to the conclusion that the percentages mentioned in our last bulletin of 80 to 85 percent normally, towards 30/40/50 percent of choice today, shows that the crop is not the best one ever.
This sounds a bit synical but after the nightmare of the year 2011, this is also one of the worst crops ever. It is bad for the farmers, it is bad for the packers and it is bad for the market.
Pure quantity-wise we reckon that we might come to 40.000 tons, provided we are very positive but quality-wise this year cannot be called a top-year.
Of course, we shall deliver a final product which can compete with the years before but the percentage of top-quality is dramatically smaller. Thus it will give a lot of exertion to come to the same result.
The positive factor, we hope, might come from the qualities which is currently on the cement slaps to dry .
These types has a better resistance against bad weather, so to say and hopefully the majority of it will arrive in better condition, during the second half of this month so that it makes the end of the season a bit more positive
Nevertheless and we have said it before, it will be quite a job to facilitate the buyers for Ramadan for the full hundred percent in time.
As far as price-development is concerned, it is simple to expect that due to the forementioned bad news and reckoning with the competitive world, the scenario will rather be upwards than downward in the weeks/months to come.
All in all, let’s hope that later in the season, the quantities and hopefully the quality goes for the better so that the final result for everybody concerned will be an acceptable one.