The season 2016 is over and there is no other option then looking forward to 2017, as far as raisins in South Africa, are concerned.
We have said it earlier. This was not the best season. Together with 2011, 2016 was also not very glorious for farmers, packers and all who are involved in this industry..
Although we are still waiting for the official figures, it won’t be a secret to say that the total of the crop is 30 to 50 percent less than the year before. From some farmers we even got the message that the bad luck or better said the total loss was at least 60 percent
That is quantity-wise but still more than the quantity one can state that the quality was also not the best-one ever (to put it mildly).
Let us repeat ourselves, let’s look positively to next season.
It shall, hopefully, be much and much better. Looking at the expected overall-tonnage, which might be available somewhere in september resp. october, we foresee totally different price levels..
Another subject is the Golden Jumbo:
Recently we learned there is still good demand for jumbos but price-wise the differences between golden mediums and jumbos should be more realistic than it has been in the past 3 /4 seasons. A premium is fine but prices went obviously too high and a good saying is: Good things won’t last for ever. We are therefore uncertain at this moment how the demand will be next year but we hope to have more information in time before preparation will start for next season
Thompsons is an easier subject. As long as the quality remains good (or even better) the world will buy them, next to Californian and Chilean Thompsons. Whether farmers can make a premium fully depends on the quality.
It is as simple as that.
Orange River quality.
If we go some 8 years back, there was still a good demand for O.R.’s. Unfortunately, the problem this time, is on both ends.
The farmer must spend a lot of time (think of labor, oil, racks and nets) to make the product and henceforth needs to receive a fair and dainty price for its product. If so, he will be to keen to make O.R.’s again.
On the other side, the buyer cannot afford to pay big premiums over W.P. and Thompsons simply because of competition from other countries and not to forget, the bigger buyers are not prepared to pay prices or may be, cannot pay higher prices as smaller, selected buyers used to do in the past when such special product was still “hot cäkes” and these buyers were easily prepared to pay the premium.
New crop from California and Turkey.
Only around July/August we shall have a fairly good idea what Turkey will bring us this year.
The same applies of course for California.
In the light of the good price-levels for almonds it can be expected that the raisin-acreage willl diminish further in California and to what extend the crop in Turkey will have suffered from the late frost on the one side and the impact of the Chlorpyrifos-problem on the other side shall be decisive for up-coming price-levels.
Until then we wish you all a good rest during the summer-holidays.M