In the greater part of the production-areas (like Turkey, California, India, Iran and China), the cards have been dealt, as the expression says. In other words, the tonnage of each and every country is known and the outcome seems to be that the upcoming season, there should be more than enough raisins available.
Whether South Africa will have a crop of 60.000 tons instead of 50.000 tons and Chile will not come over 60.000 tons, where they usually are good for 70.000 tons, will not make the difference anylonger, since we know that California has a huge carry-over. Consequently, there will be, overall, abundant material available.
Although and as said before, the tonnage of both countries shall not really make the difference in the worldwide supply, the need for special qualities like from California, Chile and S-Africa is manifest and there is still a special type of clientele which is keen on these qualities and consequently they are still prepared to pay a premium (USD 300/450.- per ton) but again, only for a superb quality.
In our last bulletin we made clear that it is far too early to say anything sensible about the new crop from South Africa and it is even more unpredictable what will happen to the crop in Chile.
In South Africa, things are going well and the crop is slowly but steadily growing in an excellent way. However, having learnt from the past we better do not make any suggestions so far.
Even at the end of October you may, repeat you may, expect some nightfrost . So we areanxiously waitng until this period has past. Early november we go, by tradition, into the vine-yards ourselves in order to find out, with our own eyes, what we may and may not expect from the coming crop.
Only then we are possibly prepared to give out prices for a certain quantity. Both Thompsons and goldens.
If we look at the price-developments over the past five years, it is clear that we came from very high in the past, to pretty low today.
Therefore it is fully understandable that buyers take their pick at so-called termporarily “bottom-prices” (USD 1350/1400.-), from Turkey, which simply results, per consequence, in a bit higher levels.
With good crops everywhere, the chances that prices will explode lateron ending up in non-deliveries is not very feasible in the coming season
It is very important, of course, to experience what California will do price-wise. Will they diminish their pric-levels in order to reach again their former export-figures or will they find their ways in the local market.
Although these are all question-marks sofar, it seems that price-levels will be reasonable the coming season..