The raisin-situation of 2013 is getting clear!!
California is on the point of getting a more than fairly sized crop, so to say. Thirty percent more has been mentioned although we must wait another 14 days before the majority of the raisins has been dried and harvested to know more correctly how quality and quantity relate to each other and what we may expect of the pricing.
As far as Turkey is concerned we are a bit puzzled. Originally the story was that the crop could be roughly about 30 percent smaller than the crop of 2012 because of adverse weather at the beginning of the season. Lateron we were to understand that the size of the crop could be less disappointing.
Today the news comes to us that one should indeed reckon with a much smaller crop (20/30 pct) and that farmers are not (yet) willing to bring their merchandise to the market. Was a price for nr. 9 currently mentioned around USD 2150.-, today the ideas are more around USD 2600 fob Izmir. How realistic this all might be, time will learn.
Iran reports that they will almost have the same crop-figure as last year.
The problem for Iran is that they are facing quite some imports from China at very competitive levels, which does not make live easy for the whole of their industry.
What does the total of this addition tells us price-wise? Of course it is a serious and well-known factor to realize that farmers, worldwide, always go for higher prices and of course buyers want the contrary.
Although we are on the point of saying that the high prices, as we have seen them at the start of last season, shall not return, we realize that one must be careful with such statement.
What we do notice is that holidays are over. Purchasers are back in their chairs again and that means that they are starting to ask for prices again, which are only given as quotations, as yet.
One factor, which is normal in September, is that demand is growing for nearby and afloat goods. However, there is hardly anything underway, as we understand and warehouses are empty as far as raisins are concerned.
Once, when all the new crop raisins are in the barn we shall see what happens and by that time we hope to give you more precise news.