There is confusion in the market whether there will come enough raisins available this year from Turkey and what impact such possible shortage might have on the world-prices.
Although it is, of course, not a law of Medes and Persians, a smaller crop does not go together with the best quality ever.
If the rumors get true that Turkey should have a crop which could be 20/25 percent less, it would mean an availability of about 225.000 tons of raisins and…. as long as the fresh grape-packers and the wineries/alcool-companies do not take a bigger share than normal.
Even a fairly sized or a big crop in California shall hardly be enough to out-balance a possible shortage. Reason?? Too many raisin-farmers in the USA have changed during the last decade from raisins to almonds which meant a considerable decrease of the raisin-acreage and as long as the demand for almonds keeps growing, this situation shall not change for the better. Besides that, the labor-costs in the raisin-industry, in comparison with almonds, is much and much higher. (Almonds, pistachios, pecans (a.o.) can be harvested by machines, which is still impossible for raisins).
A lot will depend on the discussions between the government/the Raisinboard and the farmers, whether we will hear/see low priced-offers for Thompson mediums, later in the year.
Much later in the year!!!
We are not too optimistic in this respect because if Turkey is already demanding USD 2540 fob for new crop nr. 9, there is no logic to expect lower offers from California for their first class and wellknown Thompsons.
We have said it many times: only Turkey and California are responsible for the world’s price-levels.
Although Iran can have a fairly big crop (between 120.000 and 150.000 tons) and certainly plays its role in the market, the overall price-setting is made by and depends on Turkey and California.
Crops of Chile and South Africa have a specific quality for which both countries find their specific buyers but because of their limited crops, are not the countries which can rule the market.
We shall have to wait and keep our fingers crossed for further developments.