The South African raisin-crop of 2013 is finally in the barn!
At least the bigger part of it. In the first place we can state that, in average, the crop has been good, big and of good quality. That does not apply only for the goldens which are judged as superior over all other origins but also Thompsons, O.R.’s and others are of excellent quality, this year..
Now we have to wait for the official figures in order to find out whether this year’s crop is exceeding the earlier estimated 50.000 tons.
With, sofar, a very modest crop in Chile, which almost automatically means “no jumbos”, it should, at least, mean good to excellent prices for all types for Chilean raisins although we should realize that the world-wide recession shall also have its influence as well in the food-industry resp. in the raisin-industry.
The real headache for certain industries, who desperately need Thompson or Flame Jumbos, will be the question, where can I find them? If Chile does not have the quantities needed, it is no option to go to South Africa because they are not there either. That means automatically that serious premiums shall have to be paid for the few containers which might come available.
Another (future) problem is the price for golden mediums. Although most “golden” buyers today prefer the product from South Africa, because of its specific caracteristics, no one can, despite these facts, fight against the incredibly low offers from Iran.
Henceforth, who can blame the buyers who opt for a product which is a real “price-cracker”, these days.
Of course, the interest for South African golden raisins is still there but more specifically for jumbos and bolds and without any doubt, buyers are still prepared to pay a premium. Unfortunately however, also here, it is hard to find any of these bigger types.
The biggest question is now: what is cooking at the horizon of Raisin-land?
Will the two biggest suppliers (California and Turkey) have a good crop in September?
If yes, prices could come down to a certain extend, if no, current levels can easily remain where they are today.
Summarizing: it is far too early to say a wise word about the two of them, as yet, although we got the news meanwhile that parts of Turkey were attacked by frost, some days ago. Insiders speak about 20 percent of the vines were hit but whether this will have a severe influence on the outcome of the crop is far too early.
For any info, whatsoever, from California, it is far too early. Only, somewhere in June/July we expect any serious information.
The first country which should come with confirmed exact data is Chile, informing the market that finally the crop is not as bad as earlier indicated or…. even worse.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
We keep you informed.