Each and every day the raisin-market is getting clearer and clearer.
One thing is sure: there will certainly be enough raisins around, this season. Either top-quality or medium quality.
Exact figures cannot be given as yet but Turkey (probably 328.000 ton), California, Iran, India and China, will all have a strong contribution (tonnage-wise) to the overall-market.
Having said that, we must realize that as long as the world speaks about a crisis, it is logic that manufacturers, in general, do realize that competition is strong and henceforth they shall not opt, very eagerly, for the top-segments, one can presume.
As a result of same, there should, logically, be downward adjustments, as well, for the better qualities, in this market.
At least that is what the raisin-world expects as long as we speak about Thompson and Thompson-like raisins.
Most probably we will find a different situation if we speak about golden raisins.
The strong demand for golden raisins is still present and the last few seasons have made clear that the demand for top-quality is permanently there.
In this respect golden raisins is a product on its own.
Of course, also the coming season, Iran, Chile and others will do their very utmost to supply the market with goldens (mostly medium-seized raisins).
Whilst writing this information, it is manifest that Turkey shall, according to their much biggger crop, have to find a way to export an extra 70/80.000 tons of raisins.
Under normal circumstances such effort will go together with lower price-levels in order to meet the interest. It is still a question-mark whether this will be the case, since the Californian crop shall surely turn out to be smaller than last season. This, as such, is nothing abnormal since last years’ crop was pretty big, so to say.
Summarizing we can say that the two biggest suppliers of raisins will have good crops and will be supported by fair or big crops from Iran, India and China.
In other words enough raisins!!.
In which direction price-levels will go or set, in today’s turmoil, is hard to say. The market needs a few weeks more patience, in that respect.
From South Africa there is sofar nothing special to report.
Only by mid resp. the end of October it will get a bit clearer what we can expect for crop 2015 and we shall inform you accordingly.