Living with the disappointing news about theTurkish crop, it is good to hear that there is also positive news which, this time, came from California .
According to the latest information the crop should be 13 percent better than last year.
The numer of bunches has gone up from 36 to 43 and that means that , if we add up both figures (California together with Turkey), there is, at least, a slight balance again in raisin-land between supply and demand, in the months to come. There is also positive news from Chile. According to the latest information their crop is also slightly better than indicated before,
By the way, it is stunning that with an ongoing decrease in acreage Californian farmers, helped by the weather, have been able to show better figures than the year before.
Despite this positive news farmers, under the RAC, the market is not expecting lower price-levels than the current ones. On the contrary, it seems. We should not forget that if prices come under pressure again, the fear exists that more and more famers will opt for other products than raisins.
On top of the above we should keep strongly in mind that since the “nineties” no dealer, of whatever type of dried fruits or nuts, is prepared to hold big stocks.
The simple reason is that buyers prefer, more and more, direct lines with origin and henceforth it does not pay, for the dealers, to hold stocks, somewhere in Europe of any importance, anylonger
It is that reason that important price-movements occur quicker and what is more: they can be more intense than in old days because in the back of the mind of the industry, there was always the knowledge that the full stores in Europe were the security/buffer against very strong price-movements.
Again: only mid September we can expect reaction about the various new crops. Figures, at that very moment, will be more precise and everybody is back from the mountains and beaches and should take action for the last period of the year.
Summarizing: if figures do not change much for the better, (Turkey), the overall feeling is that we should expect higher prices.