Back from S.Africa we have been seeing with our own eyes that the raisin-crop looks good. The fresh-grape-farmers have been starting meanwhile their campaign and if no adverse weathersystem plays a spoiling role, we expect the first raisins in the factories around end of January.
Anyhow the farmers are quite positive because they are picking up already the first bins to fill them up with new crop when time is ready.
When enough farmer-stock will be delivered it might be possible that some factoreis start up around the 15th of February. It is queswork of course but that is reasonably possible.
With the knowledge that Turkey will remain rather stiff on prices because of their modest crop and the same still applies for the Californian Thompson mediums which are not offered below USD 2400 per ton, chances are there to expect reasonable price-levels for South African Thompsons. We estimate that the value should be somewhere around USD 2350.- c+fr.
Golden raisins is a story on its own.. Apart from Iran and lateron from Chile there is not much of a competititon for the early deliveries (meant for Ramadam).
How, in reality, the prices for mediums, bolds and jumbos will turn out is difficult to foresee.
In our estimations the price for Golden Mediums choice c+fr Europe shall move between USD 2900.- and 2950, whereas the price for bolds should be found between USD 3450- and 3500
On top we find the price for the Golden jumbos choice grade at around USD 4500.- per ton.
As said earlier these are only quotations. Since the Dollar versus Rand is rather volatile we can only make firm offers when asked for. Secondly one has to take competition into consideration
mainly as far as Thompsons are concerned and keep an eye on differences between old and new crop. Having said the above we must reckon that we will need another 6 weeks of good weather before we are almost sure about the crop which, by that time, is still not under the roof.
In other words, there is still a lot of uncertainty such as currency, weather, competition and the lot.