Apart from all kind of side-effects, like competition, currencies, carry-overs, embargoes and even wars, the price of a product depends normally and simply, in the first place, on supply and demand,
Whether that is still the normal procedure is hard to tell because of the fact that nowadays the overall impact of the biggest, most important product sofar, (OIL) is dominating the whole world in many aspects..
It is true and logic that oil is not directly responsible for a higher or a lower price (for instance raisins) but indirectly it has a more than normal impact on the whole, worldwide economy the very moment that prices for oil started to come down rapidly from USD 100 and more, to USD 30.- per barrel today
Of course low oil prices are a blessing for a.o. the transport-companies (think of sea-freight for containers) but where so many countries, companies and workers are dependable on oil and oil-related products, the impact on the world-economy is almost unmeasureable.
Of course, in the very end the fossil sorts of enenergy will be taken over by durable products but today we are still amid of this “turn-around”.
Summarizing it means that coming to realistic price-settings for products (in this case raisins) is not an easy one.
Were we, in the past, used to price-changes of USD 10/20/30 or even 40 per ton in the course of weeks or months, today it can swing by USD 50 or even 100.- per day.
If we look at the incredibly low Rand towards the dollar and the Euro and we compare that with a Rand of only 2/3 month ago, it makes huges differences. This alone explains already the enormous downward fluctuations. For countries (on the buying sides) which are dependable on oil and gas and related products it means that also their currencies are being badly hurt and henceforth are no longer in a position to buy in the same way, as before
Having said the above, the consequence is that farmers, packers and purchasers have to live by the day as far as buying and selling is concerned.
Today (but only for today) price-quotations for golden mediums new crop are around USD 2700.- pmt c+ fr. and for Thompson medium around USD 1950.-
The latest news is that the interest for Turkish sultanas is picking up again and prices get firmer.!!
We will keep you informed.
N.B. Over the wekend quite some strong rains hit the raisin-area in South Africa. To what extend these rains will have its impact on the qulity and will be responsible for some delay, we will learn during the course of this week,