The expression is: no news, good news. In other words: as long as we do not hear any more negative news about drought, frost, hail or whatever adverse type of weather, things might turn out, hopefully, not too bad on either sides.
With either sides we mean of course Turkey and California.
As said in our earlier bulletin the market is waiting for indicative figures about the outcome of the crops in Turkey and lateron in California.
These two heavy-weights will have the decisive impact on the raisin-market as a whole.
In this respect we should mention that this years’ total export from California is about 11 percent lower (from 345.000 to 307.0000 tons) than the year before. The reason was/is that the export-prices were at least USD 200.- per ton higher than those from their competitors and henceforth California lost quite some business to other suppliers.
India, Iran, China, Chile and South Africa will play their role as well but the main factor will be the crops in the first forementioned two countries.
It speaks for itself that if the outcome of both crops is importantly lower than the previous year, the market will be uppish.
After all the negative news in the past, we would be very surprised if reverse should be the case.
It is well understood of course that if we feel already now that both crops shall not end up in the line of the best ones of the last 5 years, it is normal that we may expect some nervousness i.e higher price-levels.
Anyhow, by the time that crop-figures are no longer quess-work but facts and with the knowledge that Chile and South Africa are meanwhile completely sold out and on top of that it is common knowledge that stores in European harbours are without any serious raisin-stocks. The only origin that could fill up possible gaps, although, in a later stage, is Iran but here again, they won’t give it away.
Further news from California reached us saying that since last years’ harvest at least 10.000 acres with vines has been taken out again. Of course, seen in the the overall-situation it is not the whole world but gives an indication what growers think about the raisin-future on that side and the likelihood that more acres will be dug.
By the same token, farmers were advised to go for a crop-insurance which ends up at the 31st of July