Although we expect that the South African raisin-intake, shall go on, at least, for another month, we can already state that the crop in South Africa is much bigger than expected and where the estimation was 50/60.000, we come now to the conclusion that a figure over 70.000 tons is not impossible.
We have not seen such tonnage before and it is almost double the quantity of some years back. If the acreage-development goes on, South Africa goes direction 90/100.000 tons, in future.
The question-mark is whether the market can absorb such quantity, taking into consideration that there was already a carry-over, which was not unimportant, to put it mildly.
Happily, the Rand has gone weak enough to come out now with really competitive prices and this could be of help to hopefully clear the warehouses, later in the year, to some extend.
Fortunately the prices in the USA did not decrease during the past months and with again a foreseen dry summer-period in the months to come, one is not over-optimistic as far as California is concerned, (one of the big suppliers) that they will go for a bumper-crop.
If, by the same token, Turkey should not have the overwhelming crop-figure as last year, (admitted it is speculation), it is not impossible that we go now and the coming weeks through the lowest price-levels for raisins so that the moment comes closer, anyhow for those who want the better product, to cover themselves for the second half of this year.
Latest news is that insiders/experts in Turkey claim that frost and high temperatures (at the wrong time) may cause a smaller than expected crop.