A market is not only formed by the ingredients of demand and supply, although that mostly comes in the first place. It should be a lot easier if it were only these components to predict how a market shall develop within a certain period of time.
In actual fact things are bit more complicated because there is also and always the quality-aspect (one cannot compare apples with pears) and thirdly one has to reckon with the volatility of currencies and above all with political strategies, like embargoes, protective measurements and economical circumstances, like wage-increases, higher ocean-freights etc etc. This complexity is eventually responsible whether one wants to buy or to sell or whether the purchaser better leaves the merchadise in the hands of the seller for a while resp. the seller does not feel at ease to go into the market in order to get rid of his merchandise.
Even health-arguments, respectively new laws, can throw up factors which should not lightheartedly be ignored.
All these factors can play a role (one more important than the other) and goes through the minds of growers, producers, dealers before they decide to make decisions.
To make things even more complicated: …..how reliable are statistics and crop-figures and to what extend play short-sellers a decisive role during the most active period of a market?
Last but not least what can be the impact of rumours and what is the impact of carry-overs (quantity- and quanlity-wise)?
In other words, all this should go through the mind of decision-takers before they finally take action.
Let us stick to raisins only: there is no reason to believe that, world-wide, there should not be enough raisins for the year 2015. In other words there is neither a reason to expect prices to rise.
On the contrary, we would say. When the world found out that Turkey was going to have a more than good crop, at least as far as quantity was concerned, prices went down considerably. (more than USD 500.- per ton). Also a good crop in Iran can only confirm that there is hardly any chance to see price-increasements in the coming months.
We should not forget of course that we are talking about Thompson and Thompson-like raisins and not about goldens.
Anyway, if we listen well and collect all the information, it shall, most surely, be a flat market in this respect. That means we do not expect a further sharp decline of prices but it is more obvious to expect a maintenance of the current levels with increasing levels in the first months of next year.
Goldens is a different story.
Goldens should not be compared with a bulk-product like Thompsons or other raisins which are, quality-wise, getting closer and closer to the aforementioned type and is, for a greater part used as an ingredient rather than goldens which is a product on its own, specially if we talk about bolds and jumbos.
The latter needs a total different approach to produce them and because of the extra investments (think of very costlytrays) and the much longer period of the drying process not every farmer is prepared and in a position to pick up the challenge to make them.
If, like especially this week, mother nature is against you and throws a hail-storm over your vine-yard the whole excercition can be in danger or even worse, can nullify your work..
All these elements play a role when it comes to put a price in the market.
For all these reasons we are forced to wait as long as possible (preferably until the merchandise is under the roof) before we can go in the market with prices.
If, meanwhile, buyers are interested, we can, depending on the current situations, try and make a suitable proposal resp. offer.