The more we enter in the phase of the delivering period of the new crop, the (nervous) activities in the South African raisin-market are growing rapidly.
Due to the fact that the fresh grape market is traditonally decreasing after the Christmas-period, a lot of farmers are no longer selling fresh grapes but are making in stead, as far as they have the equipment available, (one needs a lot of costly trays to let them dry) golden raisins.
Therefore it is justified to believe that this year enough goldens (mostly mediums) will come available.
Henceforth it is plausible that, with the carry-over of last year and the current better crop in sight, prices for goldens and raisins in general shall come under pressure.
As a result we have seen prices coming down for golden mediums from USD 3150.- per metric ton, at the end of last year, to USD 2950.- at this very moment.
The questionmark is: will prices go down any further? There are indications that we will scratch (price-wise) around the bottom right now and nothing awkward should happen to see a revival of the price-levels.
However, and looking at the matter from the other side, we should also realize that it will take another week or two before we are amid of the start of the delivery-period and if all farmers want to sell their merchandise at the very same moment, specially their golden mediums and Thompson mediums, it could easily mean that farmersstock-prices will undergo a sharp dip.
In case our crystal-ball-studies should confirm such developments, it will not be the best starting-point for new crop raisins from Chile.
Since the quality, specially on Thompsons, is about equal to those of South Africa, (for which the asking -price is somewhere around USD 2250.- per mton cost and freight EMP, it will create strong competition between the two in order to attract buyers.
It must be said that Chile is producing more Flames than Thompsons!!!!