Since the new raisin-crops in California and Turkey are under the roof meanwhile, at least for the greater part, the situation is getting more clear by the day.
If it is true that the price of a merchandise reflects the overall situation at best, the raisin-crop in Turkey should even be smaller than everybody expected during the months of June/July and August.
With new crop prices for Thompsons and sultanas, both at around USD 3000.- per ton, it is clear that this means an all times record high!
In other words there must be something definitely wrong, quantity-wise, with this crop.
Even if, at a later stage, prices should come down to more acceptable levels, it still means that really low resp. very sharp and competitive prices can hardly be expected from that side.
With the knowledge that the crop in Iran has been growing under, more or less, the same conditions as the crop of Turkey, we can hardly think of any relief from that side. We have no crystal ball but nevertheless we are sure that because of various reasons Iran shall bring its prices closer to those of Turkey.
Contrarery to Turkey, this year’s Californian crop is good and much bigger than the year before.
Official figures are not yet available.
Although farmers still do their best to persist on getting the same price, or even higher, for their farmers-stock (USD 1900, last year), some packers already anticipate on lower levels later on and give out quotations at USD 2500.- per ton for Thompson mediums.
It should be clear that a difference of USD 500.- per ton between the two major suppliers of raisins, is quite abnormal, to put it mildly.
In a later stage, it has to be seen how markets (new crops) in Chile and South Africa will react on the above market-developments.
SOUTH AFRICA: although South Africa has suffered, of late, a bit of night-frost and some more to come, there is still the expectation that one could expect a crop between 40/45.000 tons.
CHILE: it is understood that the new crop from Chile is still too far forward to say anything serious about it but it is obvious that prices from Chile and South Africa, shall, in due time, find conformity with the rest of the market.