Back from the Anuga we have learnt that during the Fair, prices in general did not really change.
Prices from Turkey are still pretty high, which means that some suppliers still insist on levels of of USD 3000.-. per ton. The same applies for Iranian Goldens at USD 3000.- plus.
In other words: so far no weakness.
Meantime we also learnt that the majority of the Argentinian crop has suffered strongly from adverse weather. Supposedly, Argentina shall not be a cheap supplier in the coming season, if at all.
The only positive news comes from the USA. With a much better crop than the year before, some of the Californian raisin-farmers are willingful enough to accept lower levels (such as USD 2400) for new crop Thompson mediums. Whether that has to do with the carry-over or direct need of money is hard to say. Anyhow, it is still hardly understandable that there should be such a price-difference between the two biggest suppliers of raisins whereby, we must state that the price-premium has always been on the side of California.
The overall feeling is that in the course of the months of October and November prices should strengthen from that side.
As a result of the above uncleanness, there is a fairly strong demand for spot material resp. afloat nearby goods but as was stated before, there is hardly anything offered.. This has probably also to do with the latest adverse weather in S-Africa.
Night-frost in S.A.
The impact of the night-frost, about 3 weeks ago, which struck the vine-yard-regions in the Northern Cape seems, in retrospect, to have been more serious than was anticipated at the very beginning.
Officials and farmers have calculated now that without (hopefully) any further serious frost-problems in the coming weeks, the new raisin crop shall not come over 35/40.0000 tons
Compared to this year’s crop of abt 55.000 tons this is a very serious decrease.
Although it is still too early to find out what the impact will be on prices, it is almost unthinkable to expect lower price-levels from this origin.
In March/April next year the raisin-new crop from Chile will come available.
In the positive event that the crop will be again in the region of about 75/80.000 tons, this will not directly mean that such tonnage can temper the world-raisin-prices respectively bringing them down to more acceptable levels.
Summarizing, it means that for the time being we have to reckon with a firm raisin-market.