The buying-activities for new crop raisins from Turkey, California and even for South African raisins have begon already, which is not abnormal in the months of September and October, in direct view of the winter-season.
For Turkey and California it is logic because the crops are, getting, for the greater part, into the barn and we take it that the earlier mentioned crop-figures should be more or less accurate and thus cannot chance importantly anylonger.
Both California and Turkey however are basically not keen sellers, to start with. Traditionally farmers, packers and dealers rather believe in higher levels than the other way around..
Due to the importantly smaller crop in Turkey (340K in 2014 against 215 K for 2015 and despite the carry-in, it is important that Iran (abt. 15 pct less) /India, China, South Africa and Chile will have fair crops in order to keep a certain balance between supply and demand.
Of course, a good or even an abundant crop in South Africa as well as in Chile shall (or the contrary) be of great importance (because of their quality) for the market-development in total.
Although the prospects are good, South Africa is, crop-wise and in this respect, still a question-mark. Too many negative factors can still happen!!
Good demand for goldens is already manifest but as we just said, it is too early for any speculations, whatsoever. So far the development in the vine-yards is practically quite good. A good number of buds are there but not yet in a stage of breaking and as said before, it is far too early to say anything serious about crop expectations.
So much can happen meanwhile that it is unwarranted to make decisions now. Neither on the buying nor on the selling-side.
At the end of October/early November it is more likely to do so when the grapes have a certain development behind them. In other words, although there is no need to wait for full veraison, a lot of negative factors could still happen until and before the cutting and drying is starting. It would be, so to say: dealing in the unknown.
Only by the end of November we will have a fairly insight about what the start of the new crop in Chile looks like and that is possibly also the time for South African raisin farmers, packers and dealers to negotiate prices and contracts.
The only thing we can say so far is that a disappointing crop in Turkey and no eager sellers in the USA makes the market firmer than earlier expected, to say the slightest